Self-exiled Iraqi intellectuals, aspiring for a “regime change” and a transition to democracy in their motherland, have accelerated their campaign to secure international guarantees that would prevent a US occupation of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. But, despite US President George W. Bush’s repeated pledges that his forces would not remain “a day more” than necessary in the event of an invasion, Iraqi exiles fear an occupation would tear the nation apart and dash hopes for democracy. 
Exiles look ahead to life after Saddam 
Intellectuals stress risks of american occupation 

Dissidents offer vision of democratic, nonsectarian and pluralistic state ­ but insist UN provide any interim force 
Mona Ziade, Daily Star staff 

BEIRUT: Self-exiled Iraqi intellectuals, aspiring for a “regime change” and a transition to democracy in their motherland, have accelerated their campaign to secure international guarantees that would prevent a US occupation of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. But, despite US President George W. Bush’s repeated pledges that his forces would not remain “a day more” than necessary in the event of an invasion, Iraqi exiles fear an occupation would tear the nation apart and dash hopes for democracy. 

These fears have inspired Iraqi intellectuals to present their own scenario for “the day after,” which prevents occupation and provides “international guarantees.” 

According to Mehdi Hafedh, an Iraqi economist and former regional director of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, war is inevitable, but it need not be a protracted conflict. 

“There is no doubt that there will be war,” said Hafedh, current president of the nongovernmental organization, the Arab Society for Economic Research. “But there may be surprises in the first days, such as a military coup d’etat, or he (Saddam) may bow out.” 

Rejecting widespread belief that Saddam would rather die than step down, Hafedh said the Iraqi leader was showing signs of “weakening.” He said this change was evident in recent televised interviews, where Saddam “was not as arrogant as he used to be.” 

“All these totalitarian regimes produce surprises,” said Hafedh in an interview Thursday with The Daily Star. “You cannot feel the emergence of this unless there’s a shock. Iraq needs shock therapy.” 

Hafedh explained how the Iraqi exiles began their regime change campaign last month, when they produced a petition bearing the signatures of impressive personalities spanning Iraq’s political, religious and ethnic spectra. 

They called on Saddam to voluntarily leave power and for the rise of a transitional administration ­ under an international umbrella. “We had been in contact for many years. We reached a conviction that we have to suggest an alternative to the policies before us. The petition was a reflection of common concern about the future of Iraq,” Hafedh said. He admitted that “for the time being, there’s no option but the American policy.” 

The United States, Hafedh said, “is calling for a new government formed by a new occupation force and the opposition forces” ­ a reference to the largely Kurdish and Shiite groups, struggling to set up a government-in-exile. 

“In our opinion, this has to be examined in a different way,” Hafedh said. “The main point here is that the occupation has to be blocked, and an administration formed to pave the way for free elections. 

“A change of regime without democratic change would not solve Iraq’s problems,” Hafedh said, alluding to tight international sanctions stifling the country since Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and Kurdish and Shiite rebellions, which, unless pacified, would lead to a three-way split of Iraq. 

The intellectuals have “no conflict” with the opposition groups, but there are “some political differences, of course,” he said. These clearly stem from the intellectuals’ concerns about a joint US-opposition rule, which could kindle ethnic and religious sentiments. 

The most urgent priority, according to Hafedh, is to prevent occupation. And whether Bush goes it alone, or leads a coalition into Iraq, any transitional authority would have to be under the umbrella of the United Nations. 

This, he insisted, is the only scenario which would restore to Iraq “stability and security.” “Iraqis feel they lack security. It is not a matter of only democratic rights. It is the result of two decades of wars, repression and absence of human rights,” he said. 

Hafedh said some of his Iraqi colleagues have been in contact with US administration officials and have advised them that an appointment of a military governor to oversee transition after Saddam’s ouster “would not be in the interest of the Iraqi people,” and would be seen as an American occupation. The alternative is international tutelage for a short time until elections can be held. 

Hafedh agreed that a military onslaught would wreck what is left of Iraq’s economy, grappling with more than $90 billion in foreign debts in addition to unpaid war reparations claims. “There will be a cost. But no doubt the country needs shock therapy,” Hafedh said Since their emergence into the public eye with the widely circulated petition, Iraq’s exiled intellectuals, including former ministers and academics, have been inundated with “hundreds” of requests by other Iraqis wishing to join the effort, Hafedh said. This has encouraged them to widen the circle of contacts to muster domestic support for their vision of post-Saddam Iraq: an Arab country, more actively engaged “in Arab causes, particularly the Palestinian cause,” a consolidation of a national identity, “with no consideration for religious or ethnic backgrounds,” and a system of “democratic pluralism.” 

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