A New Day Dawns for Iraq. What will it bring?

As the sun rises over Baghdad, Basrah, and Mosul the job of creating a new order in Iraq has only just begun. This new order must go far beyond the physical damage resulting from the war or immediate need for humanitarian aid. After more than two-plus decades of rule by a tyrannical dictator and twelve years of international sanctions, Iraq requires economic, political, and social rebuilding to create a viable society that functions primarily in the best interests of the Iraqi people. Western-style democracy may not be the viable solution and the eventual result. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the world must be prepared for this.

As the sun rises over Nasiriyah, Karbala, and Najaf there is the need to reconstruct vital infrastructure ravaged by time and neglect in order to supply clean water, electricity, and basic services. The British and American military have succeeded in a relatively short period of time in toppling the regime of the brutal dictator. This was accomplished within a framework that minimized destruction of property, existing infrastructure, and the loss of innocent civilian lives. Despite the importance of the military results, it is only the beginning of a long and difficult process of reconstruction, which must begin immediately.
History teaches that such a reconstruction process takes years, if positive results are to occur. This is borne out in the examples of post-World War II Germany and Japan, South Korea after the Korean War, and Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan all of which are presently ongoing. The Iraqi people, the American people, and the world in general are impatient, all wanting immediate gratification. This is in-part understandable, although totally unrealistic. By the end of the fourth day of combat in Iraq the expectation was that the war should have already been won and the critics of the military plan emerged from all quarters. The age of technology and instant information are in part to blame. However, history shows this tendency toward unrealistic expectations and doubt is expressed repeatedly. It is even recorded in the biblical story, that following the Egyptian captivity during the exodus in the desert the uncertainty of freedom lead to the creation of the "Golden Calf" and the desire to return to the certainty of slavery in Egypt.
As the sun rises over Al Kut, Ar Ramadi, and Kirkuk the first manifestations of the Iraqi people expressing their relief that fear and repression no longer control their lives are starting to be seen. The outcries for the American and British military forces to create instant stability in the face of massive looting by the Iraqi people, and the demand for immediate restoration of services cut off by the previous regime are understandable after all these decades of being kept subservient by a brutal dictatorship, and where torture, starvation, and murder were routine occurrences in the daily existence of the Iraqi people. However, care must be taken to keep this new found freedom alive and to mold it into the fabric of a new Iraqi society. The master plan must include the creation of a non-threatening political system that allows for free choice, free speech, a free press, and the active participation and representation of all of the Iraqi people. This goal can only be realized through a direct effort for power sharing among all of the segments of the Iraqi population – the Shi'a, the Sunni, the Kurds, and the remaining minorities.
As the sun rises over the Middle East the striking realization is that Iraq is a country with only one industry, the Iraqi National Oil Company, a monopoly formerly run by the Ministry of Petroleum, which benefited only the ruling elite. Collectively, the economies of the Arab world are in stagnation, and based on information from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, Iraq is one of the worst. Developing commercial ventures with private-sector entities may be a key to unlocking Iraq's economic potential. President George W. Bush has repeatedly stated, "The oil belongs to the Iraqi people." The United States must stimulate Iraq to produce indigenous companies to manage its oil wealth. The profits should go to programs that benefit the people including: education, healthcare, human services, infrastructure developments, jobs, agriculture, and institutional development. A portion of the profits from Iraq's oil wealth needs to be distributed each year directly to the people as is presently done in the U.S. State of Alaska.
As the sun rises over Riyadh, Amman, Beirut, Cairo, and Damascus there is disbelief at the sights of the Iraqi people welcoming the American and British troops as liberators and the tearing down of statues of the dictator by the Iraqis. These images are contrary to the slanted, anti-western media coverage usually presented in the Arab world. In some Arab countries with total media censorship these images will never be seen. The spontaneous events are positive statements supportive of the future potential for the Iraqi people. However, this potential is very fragile and can easily be disrupted. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has stated, "The atmosphere of the (Middle East) region has changed since the fall of the Iraqi regime." How will this impact the Israeli Palestinian peace process? Will Syria be the next focus for eliminating terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction?
As the sun rises over Paris, Bonn, and Moscow the rhetoric has softened because of the rapid and decisive results of the military campaign. Their new stance is for active inclusion in the post war rebuilding process. Is this an attempt to guarantee their financial self-interest? The findings to date documenting the complicity of these countries in violation of U.N. resolutions since 1991 raise suspicion and serious questions about their motivations and actions. This evidence speaks strongly against any active role for France, Germany, and Russia. The burden for their financial dealings with the now removed Iraqi government rests solely with them and must not be passed on to or assumed by the Iraqi people or any new government.
As the sun rises over the United States of America it is clear that the heaviest burden post-war remains with the United States in part due to the preemptive military action taken. This action was predicated on the need to eliminate Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction, the disruption of Iraq's connection to terrorist groups particularly al-Qaida, and to bring freedom to the Iraqi people through the removal of the dictatorial regime. Time is still necessary to determine the validity of these pre-war premises. However, the doctrine that preemptive military action is now acceptable and valid has been unleashed in the world. The burden that America must bare includes the requirement that: what America says is what America must do. The United States must keep its word and shepherd Iraq into an age of freedom and security for its people. Is America expecting the rebuilding process for Iraq to fuel its tenuous economy? The economic self-interest of America cannot be the primary motivation and must be guarded against in this effort. The costs of reconstruction, now estimated to be $300 to 400 billion over the next five years will be a heavy burden. Recent criticism has been levied that: the American commitment to Afghanistan has been abandoned, insufficient economic support is available for post-war rebuilding, Kabul is the only secure city, the soldiers and police have gone unpaid for months, and the Taliban are making a comeback eighteen months after being ousted from power.
The brief glimpses into the complex and multi-dimensional forces that will come into play during the next days, weeks, months, and even years are but the tip of the proverbial iceberg presently called post-war Iraq. Serious questions are raised and even more questions must be considered about the new day dawning

Dr. Saul B. Wilen is President and CEO of International Horizons Unlimited (IHU) [http://www.intlhorizons.com, (210) 692-1268], a national consulting and resources consortium based in San Antonio, Texas that applies "educational foundations and processes supporting prevention strategies to solve problems."
Dr. Wilen is a recognized authority in prevention strategies and problem solving, systems dynamics, and informatics. He directs IHU terrorism prevention and strategies development initiatives. Dr. Wilen serves on the U.S. Secret Service Task Force on Electronic Crimes and Terrorism, and the U.S. Department of Commerce Critical Infrastructure Working Group on Community Structure for Crisis Management and Preparedness. He functions as a prevention strategies consultant to numerous security, risk management, and planning entities in the United States, Canada, and England. Dr. Wilen is a member of the Advisory Board of the CCEP (Canadian Centre for Emergency Preparedness), and is affiliated with the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) of the Interdisciplinary Center, Israel.

arch/ive/ief (2000 - 2005)