The Ultimate Rogue State (And Alternatives)

Suddenly, in the space of two short months, America, the "indispensable nation", begins to resemble the ultimate rogue state. George Bush's decision to trash the Kyoto global warming treaty is appalling. That it represents an enormous, possibly definitive setback for efforts to mitigate climate change goes almost without saying. America is now confirmed as the unrepentant outlaw, the dirty man of environmental politics.

The decision is doubly appalling for what it says about the new man in the White House. Mr Bush, clinging to his "national interest" credo, seems incapable of seeing the big picture. He does not grasp the basic truth that America's national interest is inextricably intertwined with the global interest. America, for all its dominance, is but a part of the world we share. America's consumers depend for their unsurpassed living standards on shared global resources. America's greenhouse emissions are not confined to American airspace. Nor is the US immune from the negative impact of its national profligacy and international climate change. By this blinkered action, Mr Bush strengthens suspicions that he is just not big enough for his job.

But most appalling of all is the message, taken alongside similarly short-sighted, self-centred actions in the fields of defence and diplomacy, that this Taliban-style act of wanton destruction sends around the world. Instead of leading the community of nations, Bush's America seems increasingly intent on confronting it. Instead of a shining city on a hill, the world sees a dark smokestack belching fumes. From a nation that began by heroically trumpeting its belief in universal values common to all mankind comes a devastatingly different, divisive and nationalistic jingle: we do what we want, for ourselves, regard less of the consequences for you. And if you don't like it, well, tough.

Is this message sent on purpose? In other words, does the Bush administration actually understand what it is doing? For look at the record so far. It has dangerously upset the strategic balance by proposing a new national missile defence system while scrapping another treaty, the key ABM accord with Russia. It has attacked Iraq while signalling elsewhere, notably in the Balkans, that it will reduce its commitment to shared security, especially through the UN. It has gone out of its way to antagonise Russia and done much to convince China that it must ready itself for war. Its economic policy has meanwhile merely stoked fears of a US-exported recession.

Bush's America has all but abandoned, for now at least, its leading role in the Middle East and gone a long way towards scuppering detente on the Korean peninsula. On a range of fronts, not least over Nato and trade, Washington is also shaping up for conflict with the EU. And now, to cap it all, ignoring the Stockholm summit's direct plea, and at the very moment the German chancellor is crossing the White House doorstep, it tells Europe that Peoria's pocketbook comes first, so take your fossil fuel fuss and stuff it.

If Mr Bush does not intend the alarm all this is causing internationally, then he is even more inept than commonly believed. Christine Whitman, his environment agency chief, told him this month that global warming "is a credibility issue for the US in the international community". She is right and he had better believe it. In the end, America, big though it be, cannot go it alone. It needs friends. But that even the oldest friendships have limits is a lesson Mr Bush has yet to learn. Humility is another. Wisdom may be too much to hope for.

arch/ive/ief (2000 - 2005)